Bella Vista, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

952
FXUS64 KTSA 150421
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1021 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Surface ridging was laid out over E OK and NW AR this evening, and
will only slowly slide east tonight into tomorrow. Favorable
positioning of the ridge over far E OK into NW AR toward daybreak
will allow temps to drop near or slightly below freezing in some
spots. Thus, the freeze warning for NW AR will be maintained. Using
a blend of the 50th %ile probabilistic guidance (uses a more
favorable temp pattern in radiational cooling scenarios) and
CONSMOS (long history of data at certain sites), low temps were
tweaked and the frost advisory was expanded westward a bit. Winds
across E OK are expected to switch around to the south by late
tonight but won`t be strong, and the valleys are likely to
decouple anyway. Updated products sent.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 145 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

The main issue overnight is the potential for frost and freeze
conditions across parts of the area, given the surface high atop
the region. Light winds and clear skies will be conducive to good
radiational cooling, and typically, in these conditions, MOS
guidance has a better handle on how low temperatures will get than
the NBM does. Given this, the NBM initialization has been
decreased using the MOS consensus blend, and the typical cold
spots, including Bartlesville, Fayetteville, Tahlequah and Wister,
have been adjusted downward further by a couple of degrees. A
Freeze Warning has been issued for the four far northwest Arkansas
counties, leveraging not only the official forecast but also
higher NBM probabilities for freezing temperatures there. A Frost
Advisory is now in effect for areas along the Kansas border, far
eastern Oklahoma and the remaining counties in the Arkansas River
Valley given where the center of the surface high should be
through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Seasonably nice weather, including above normal afternoon
temperatures, will continue into Friday, with dry and warm
conditions extending into Saturday, accompanied by an notable
increase in southerly winds. Wind gusts on Saturday afternoon in
the 30 to 35 mph range appear likely, with the official forecast
using a blend of the NBM initialization and its 90th percentile
values. Sunday should feature even warmer afternoon temperatures
given the juxtaposition of the area along with the approaching
frontal boundary. Rain chances should begin to increase Sunday
afternoon from the west, although the best chances and the
heaviest rainfall remain on track for Sunday night and into
Monday. Mid level lapse rates forecast during this time period
support an isolated thunderstorm mention, which will be included
with this forecast. The rain will end from southwest to northeast
Monday afternoon and evening, with cooler and drier conditions to
follow for Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Uncertainty remains high for the mid to late next week period,
with little consensus having developed in the past 24 hours with
the evolution of the early week storm system after exiting our
area or any potential storm system to follow behind it. Snow is
not off the table yet during this time frame, depending on
moisture availability and a southern storm track. Confidence in
this scenario is not high enough to mention anything in the
official forecast, but it remains within the reasonable range of
possibilities. Right now, the most likely scenario is for low
liquid rain chances through Wednesday, with colder and drier
conditions to finish out the week. But to steal a line from a
coworker - we`ll have to wait and see.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  68  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   38  69  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   36  71  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   32  69  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   28  68  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   37  67  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   37  68  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   35  67  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
F10   37  69  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   39  69  42  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Friday for OKZ054>058-061>063-
     066>076.

AR...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Friday for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST Friday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07